Modeling research suggests that the frequency and duration of low-pressure systems (LPS) influencing India’s monsoon rainfall will remain broadly stable under climate change. Instead, a projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall is primarily linked to rising atmospheric water vapor.
While LPS activity determines rainfall over much of the country, its characteristics like number, intensity, and duration are diverse. A single measure is insufficient to indicate seasonal rainfall. Future research may focus on developing a composite LPS index to account for these varied characteristics.
Recent data show an increase in ‘LPS days’ but smaller system sizes and weaker intensities, potentially explaining rainfall deficits. The number of LPS events and days are expected to be largely unchanged in a warmer world, but higher water vapor content will likely lead to increased rainfall.
Source: Down To Earth