The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026 warns that the 1.5°C warming threshold set under the Paris Agreement is now unattainable. Crossing this guardrail will intensify climate risks, with every fraction of a degree and year of warming above 1.5°C raising these dangers.
Despite a slight decline in overall global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025, CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels continued to rise. These increases were partially offset by a decrease in CO₂ emissions from the land use, land-use change, and forestry sector, including a decline in global wildfire carbon emissions in 2025. The report highlights that global emissions are not yet peaking or plateauing.
The assessment concludes that accelerated mitigation efforts are necessary to minimize overshoot of the 1.5°C target and return to safer levels by the end of the century. This would require significant cuts in global GHG emissions by 2030, 2035, and 2040, alongside large-scale removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere.
Source: Down To Earth