Climate damage costs may be 4x higher, 1.5°C overshoot risks increase: report

Economic damages from carbon emissions could be up to four times higher than previously estimated, while global sea level rise is locked in for centuries, according to a new report.
The report, “10 New Insights in Climate Science 2026/2027”, highlights that 2025 was approximately 1.43°C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline, with human activities releasing a record 38.1 billion tonnes of CO2.

The analysis notes that ocean heat content reached a record for the ninth consecutive year in 2025. The rate of global mean sea level rise has doubled over the past 30 years, and emissions through 2050 under current policies could lock in an additional 300 millimetres of sea level rise by 2300.

Furthermore, the report finds that continental drying is an accelerating climate risk, with roughly three quarters of the global population living in countries losing freshwater. The social cost of carbon, measuring economic damage from emissions, has been underestimated, with some models indicating losses of up to 40 per cent of GDP under high warming scenarios by 2100.